Beyond the Bolivian revolution, elections and support, it is a lack of leadership coming?


In that sense, the recent results could leave many questions related to the MAS as a political party. The rightwing says that this is the beginning of the political erosion of the government, but in my perspective, I think that is most associated as a political-electoral mismanagement of MAS, without clear policies to choose their leaders, policies that are important at this moment of changes in order to face the pluralism that, where the challenges pluralism that entails the autonomy process.
Sunday April 4 saw regional and local elections across Bolivia. These were the first local elections held under the new Political Constitution of the State (NCPE), with new provisions for different forms of autonomies. These were the first elections in which mayors were directly elected, the first in which regional Legislative Assemblies were elected. Moreover, indigenous peoples were able to elect their own representatives to the Legislative Assemblies through their own customs and practices.

The final result is not out yet, and in some places the vote-counting is closely followed. There are accusations of fraud in some locations, voiced by followers of MAS in the eastern regions. In Pando therehave been confrontations, as police dispersed MAS followers who held a vigil outside the regional election commission office. In Beni, MAS gubernator candidate Jessica Jordan stated that in her electoral table not a single vote has been registered, even though she herself voted for MAS there.

In the gubernatorial elections, MAS came first in six out of nine departments; La Paz, Oruro, Pando, Chuquisaca, Potosí and Cochabamba. In Cochabamba, Oruro, Cochabamba and Potosí, MAS candidates won by landslides in Cochabamba, Oruro, La Paz and Potosí (58-63%), but the most significant advance was the fact that MAS came first in Pando (with 49%). Pando is one of the four departments that make up the so-called “Media Luna” (‘half moon’), where a ferocious and often violent campaign against the government of Evo Morales was launched by rightwing forces in 2007-2008. A MAS government in the east would be historic in itself. The vote-count in Pando is not over; there might be a second round there.

The rightwing forces did however hold their ground in the other eastern departments. They won clear victories, according to preliminary figures, in Santa Cruz and Beni. In Tarija there was a close battle between rightists and MAS, but in which the right emerged victorious. In Santa Cruz, the double victory of therightwing autonomists in gubernatorial and mayoral elections is interpreted (by local mainstream media) as a sign of the steadfastness of the eastern resistance against Evo & MAS. In Santa Cruz, MAS had fielded the veteran socialist leader Jerjes Justiano. In Beni, their candidate was 26-year old photo model and former Miss Bolivia Jessica Jordan (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8qDa4SxLRQ ). Had MAS been able to capture any of those regions (although highly unlikely from the beginning), it would have enabled a qualitative leap in the revolutionary process. Now the division of Bolivia remains, although the trenches will have moved some steps ahead if the Pando victory is confirmed.

The most significant result, without a doubt, was the elections of December 2009, when MAS got one of its largest voting. That is why in this election is perceived decline and loss of important spaces especially at the municipal level through the establishment of local leaders of opposition (MSM , “the Fearless Movement”, although essentially a personalist and populist party, has its origins in the left) in two cities: La Paz and Oruro that used to be strongholds for the MAS) perhaps as a consequence of political mismanagement in the election for the leadership of MAS. In these elections MSM has emerged as the mainopposition force in the western highland regions. They have also established some minor footholds in eastern Bolivia. From this point onwards, MSM has the ability to emerge as the national contender of power in the country.

These results, still preliminary, as I said early, show a number of variations It was a success or failure? To whom? If we take a look of the last elections held between 2005 and 2009, it is possible to note that the MAS was increasing its voting and political spaces in a systematic manner.

That would mean a mutation of the image and discourse of the Bolivian counter-revolutionary forces. The opposition until now has been characterized by being white, racist, chauvinist, dominated by upper class (including more or less feudal) interests and tainted by links to old regimes. When the rightwing went amok in Santa Cruz in 2007, with pogrom-style persecutions against indigenous people, the Bolivian people at large reacted by closing the ranks behind Evo and MAS. The old elites cannot achieve any mass appeal outside their own home turfs, a fact which was evident in the December 2009 presidential election. The MSM can claim to come from within the Altiplano (the highlands), and probably has better changes of mobilizing support on an anti-incumbency platform in those areas. Moreover,there was also a MAS splinter-group in the fray (MPS) which won eight mayoral posts in La Paz department.

From MAS certain self-criticisms have been expressed, that the campaign was not as vigorous as the December 2009 campaign and that MAS candidates had not been elected from the bases. In some places MAS had taken in candidates from outside their ranks, for example through local seat-sharing deals with rightwing politicians. In Santa Cruz city, MAS had an alliance with a local oligarch politician and former mayor, Roberto Fernandez. Fernandez first councilor candidate was a former police general, Freddy Soruco, who campaigned in some bizarre military-style garb with the slogan “mano dura contra la delincuencia” (one video here, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXbQ4GdhdVo ). In Beni there had been initial protests against the nomination of Jessica Jordan, that she did not come from the movements.

But whilst the strategy of bringing in Fernandez & Soruco in the MAS fold was somewhat questionable (MAS did go from 1 to 4 seats in the municipal council, but one of them is Soruco himself), it is interesting that Jessica Jordan gained a higher percentage of votes in Beni than Evo had done in December 2009. (Pando and Beni were the only departments were the MAS vote grew compared to December 2009)Jordan also demonstrated, after her nomination, a keen interest in linking up with the popular movements in Beni.

Throughout the campaign there was a notable lack of interest on behalf of the mainstream media regarding the elections of representatives of the indigenous peoples (These elections were held before the April 4 vote). However, once the April 4 results were out it seems journalists had become aware of the fact that the indigenous assembly members in fact count in forming majorities in the assemblies. It remains to be seen what will be the impact in the diverse assemblies of the participation of these legislators.

So, at this point we are still waiting the finalized results from eastern Bolivia. In the event of fraud on behalf of the rightwing, tensions can again rise. Furthermore, in Santa Cruz one of the gubernatorial candidates, Gary Prado of MNR, was arrested just one day after the elections. Prado has since been transferred to La Paz, and the local rightwing has mobilized some protests. Prado, who is accused of preparing a coup d’état, is arrested on the grounds of failing to appear in front of a judge for questioning. Tomorrow the winning governor of Santa Cruz, Ruben Costas, is due to appear in front of a judge (regarding the holding of the unconstitutional referendum in 2008).Certainly both these men are guilty of the charges leveled against them (Prado is at least guilty of refusing to attend his legal hearing), but the fact that these moves comes immediately after the elections does not inspire much confidence in Santa Cruz and the cases themselves can well be focal points for renewed agitations.

But in the other hand we should point out that comparing the results of the municipal elections of 2004, with this last election, the MAS has increased its vote, but perhaps politically it is not consistent because there is a before and after 2005 that we can not ignore.

In an election by regions and cities, particular elements related to local management and the candidates are important, but at this juncture the political vote could be defined ultimately by the support or rejection of the national government?
In that sense, the recent results could leave many questions related to the MAS as a political party. The rightwing says that this is the beginning of the political erosion of the government, but in my perspective, I think that is most associated as a political-electoral mismanagement of MAS, without clear policies to choose their leaders, policies that are important at this moment of changes in order to face the pluralism that, that entails the autonomy process.